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Twelve hour of imported beef in China: the period of Yin, everything rises under the sun
Source: | Author:GMTT | Published time: 2020-12-03 | 982 Views | Share:


Not long ago, a so-called "Chang 'an version of anti-terrorism 24 hours" phenomena-level network drama was born. The wonderful story and vivid characters are unforgettable. But let me this half liberal arts living student fall, is the time doctor that sentence "third is, big fall", that invisible ostentation is more deadly: this combination of twelve hour and "Erya · Release the day" the way of the time, will be a "full of the image of the sky as the emperor" doctor image suddenly at present. It may be said that not a word, all show romantic. The interpretation words in "interpreting the sky" are elegant enough, with pretend bility, and even with the nature of prophecy, the interpretation of time is incisive and unique, allowing people to have sufficient space for understanding and imagination. Just as the saying "you are the sun at eight or nine o 'clock in the morning", kind and vivid. People like to use the concept of time of day to understand the stage of development of things, so it is.

All walks of life have their own laws of development and historical stages. I have been engaged in business for ten years. I dare not say that I have experienced a cycle, but I have also witnessed some industries around me rise from the ground, some flourish and decline, and some have gone up in smoke from a conflagrate.  I am not sure about other industries. Today, I would like to talk about the frozen products industry closely related to us, especially the representative product -- the rise and fall of imported beef. Chinese people have a long history of eating beef, which is impossible to verify. However, with the development of domestic production conditions and international globalization, the proportion of imported beef is growing faster and faster. In fact, it has been less than eight years since 2012 when it really erupted as a tradable commodity.


The development of imported beef in China can be generally divided into three stages


2012 and before: Zi Shi, everything was just beginning to breed. Since the reform and opening up, with the improvement of living standards, the imported beef industry began to start. Due to historical and market development reasons, China's beef consumption has gradually formed three main sources: local production capacity + import from Customs + grey channels. At that time, the market environment was full of "flowers blossoming" and the regulatory environment was full of "waste waiting for prosperity". As a result, the grey channel has a great influence on the supply and demand relationship of beef in the main pass and the whole beef in China. This is the origin of The Times and an unavoidable part of history.


2013-2018In the period of Chou, things continue to germinate and grow. Since 2013, the consumption upgrade has stimulated a significant increase in China's consumption demand for beef. This stage is divided into two parts by 2015In 2013 and 2014, a large number of importers and traditional enterprises in other industries poured into the market, resulting in a large gross profit margin of import business and the rapid completion of the "original accumulation" of the imported beef market. From 2015 to 2018, a large number of central enterprises and foreign enterprises, representing the "highland" of resources and talents, entered the market. The competition gradually became fierce, the professional division of labor in the industry emerged, and the head enterprises changed significantly. In just three years, imports by the top 20 companies (boneless beef, for example) have risen by more than 63%, but market concentration has fallen by 16%. The competition of capital price is increasingly fierce, and the profit space of international trade is gradually compressed. At the same time, with the gradual improvement of market supervision since 2015, gray channels have been strictly regulated, leading to an increase in the market demand for formal declaration of imports, which has gradually become the mainstream of the overall import channel.

 


Since 2019In the period of Yineverything rises under the sun. With the import volume of 1 million tons as the milestone, the industry has realized a leap from quantitative change to qualitative change. Combined with the import channels, China has become the world's largest importer of frozen beef. In the middle of the year, China gradually replaced Europe and The United States, becoming the largest importer of beef from Australia, New Zealand and other major producers. It is especially important in South America, the world's largest stockholder. The imported frozen food industry, represented by imported beef, has gone from being "dismissive" to "looking askance". Capital side and investors have been layout. Platform companies and start-ups aiming at the supply chain of imported frozen products are springing up like mushrooms. They are dedicated to a share in the niche business, which is the import of frozen products with a large number of properties of virgin land, one of the fastest growing industries with annual growth rates of over 30% and integrates the policy orientation of "food safety", "supply chain finance" and "industrial upgrading". It was the best of times and the worst of times.



The period of Yin, also known as Ping Dan, is the night and the alternation of the day. Colloquially, it's the darkest hour before the dawn. In the early stage, the extensive development of market rules and growth rate made enterprises face huge internal growth pressure. Not to advance is to go back. The external demand for industrial upgrading and innovation from capital side and investors, as well as the competitive pressure from homogenized enterprises, make it difficult for enterprises to move forward without any precedent. Thus, those in the market with the banner of "supply chain upgrading" and "resource integration" all have something to show for it. Companies that rely on traditional bulk or credit logic to provide frozen goods supply chain services are doing well. However, those who package themselves as "high and new technologies" and ignore the rules of the industry, and are out of touch with the actual business, devour the limited resources of investors and capital parties in the current market and the newly established trust in the industry, and are the real life thieves in the industry. "The world has a fool, read three years, then the world has no disease can be treated; And cure for three years, is to know that the world is not available. Therefore, a scholar must be knowledgeable, diligent, and not hearsay. As the medical path has been exhausted, he should ponder over his own mistakes. "This paragraph in The Great Medical Sincerity is not only discussing medical ethics, but also, by and large, discussing business ethics.


But, of course, these are the best of times. "A hundred flowers blossom" or "dragons and fish jumbled together". After all, they attracted the attention of all sides of the market to this segment of the industry. This is a necessary condition for the development of the industry. In fact, two of a kind also starts with meeting, greeting, holding hands, and eating. Market supervision has been gradually improved and purified, which is also an important prerequisite for market development to be good. The author, in the beginning of entering the industry, has suddenly tongue to formal declaration with the size ratio of the smuggling, worried about the current situation of food safety in China, impressed by the difficulty of industry enterprise development and asymmetric unfair competition, but also worried about the future of the industry and the establishment of an industrial upgrading based on business standardization and data conversion.


However, this situation has been rapidly improved under the impetus of major national food safety events and the order of international trade. In the January-June period, India's exports to Vietnam were down 46,292 tons YoY, while Hong Kong's total imports were down 71,888 tons YoY, meaning smuggling was down about 118,180 tons YoY. Formal declaration of import increased 243,067 tons. The increase in formally declared imports was more than twice as large as the decrease in smuggling.

 


MIG officially entered the frozen beef industry since 2013. From international procurement services to industry information and data research and development, it can be said that MIG has witnessed the development of China's imported beef, and has accumulated the first and most extensive resources and channels in the industry. We have an inexplicable sense of mission, just like Zhang Xiaojing in the TV series after thousands of efforts to guard Chang 'an. MIG adheres to the logic of "subject + asset", establishes the ability of risk identification, management and disposal of industrial assets with real asset management capability, and works with like-minded partners to jointly build the infrastructure of the industry and create industrial standardization. In my opinion, MIG is the best choice for the industry attributes and business development.

Digital revolution·Innovation for good-SK Risk management system press release materials 2019


Before dawn is not only the most mysterious, but also the coldest. This coolness comes not only from the industry, but also from the overall economic environment. As Mr Ren put it at a briefing in Beijing in February: "This winter will no longer be 'endured'." The explosion of traditional credit finance has reached a climax. With the ebb of asset bubbles and the end of the carnival at the capital end, and in the economic downturn, the era of financial clearing has come, the whole financial investment market is not quite calm, and the release of risks is accelerating. P2P explosion has been common, the exit of the leading enterprise Lufax let people sigh; Credit defaults continue, including triple-A ratings; Citic Capital and Everbright Capital have stepped on the thunder one after another, which makes the private placement in both the primary and secondary markets extremely dangerous and makes people wonder about the risk exposure. There are also trust companies and wealth management companies, which are the pacesitators of financial innovation, and Noah Wealth and other industry leaders, which are the first major case in the factoring business of supply chain. Anbang became "everybody" and the contractor was taken over. From non-licensed to licensed, from innovative institutions to traditional banking branches, no one is immune. We can certainly say that this is due to the environment. But finance is inherently business risk, and it has been a year or two since China's economy entered a new normal. Is there something wrong with our value on business risk? Is the methodology of conducting current market business solely based on credit management incompatible with market development? Could it be that if the rapid development of this decade's troika -- real estate, infrastructure, secondary market -- could not lend with closed eyes, we would not do business?

 


In fact, we all know, and have said for years -- asset management. But in reality, we just keep on doing credit management under the slogan of asset management. How many institutions can identify and manage assets? Let alone dispose of risky assets properly. To be fair, one of the challenges facing the asset management industry today is the unbreakable gap between the ever-changing fintech and financial services tools and the old-fashioned logic of credit management and risk control. In the era of asset management, doing credit management business is the same as carving out a sword in a turbulent river. If the sword cannot be found, the boat cannot be overturned.

 

The premise that choice is more important than effort is that we make the right choice. Follow the trend and get twice the result with half the effort. In the current international environment and domestic market environment, as Dr. Guan Qingyou said, "long-term attention should be paid to hard core assets", that is, assets that are scarce, standard and stable. The industry we are in is absolutely stable, with increasingly significant demand, enduring and long-term value; Semi-standard system is still a lack, but has begun to move towards standardization, with the basis of bulk standard products; Although assets are not scarce, they can be regarded as scarce industries from the perspective of global production capacity and the development rate of other industries. They are industries and major assets worthy of in-depth research and development.

 


From the perspective of the industry, that is, huddle together for warmth, brainpower.The early stage of a hundred flowers bloom established the foundation of industry cooperation.The severe external conditions urge us to stand together, learn from each other and make up for each other's shortcomings. Only by concentrating the limited resources on the most breakthrough point can we realize the upgrading and leapfrogging development of the industry. Separate can only be broken.

 

From a business perspective, it's about focusing on the scene and creating an ecosystem. The supply chain is a chain of ecological cooperation, and the financial service of the supply chain is also a service ecology built by multi-parties and joint efforts. The longer the industrial chain is, the more risk points are covered, and the more support is needed from trading roles with professional capabilities. In the early stage of the business, focus on the core transaction scenarios to solve the common pain points in the industry, and thus continuously accumulate industry service experience. Never be greedy for more.

 

From the point of view of risk control, is to return to assets and manage value. A fuller and deeper understanding of risk is needed. There is no way to do a good job in industrial supply chain finance by looking at the credit rating. To combine industry and finance, industry comes first. Only by being familiar with the risk categories and characteristics of the industry and grasping the characteristics of industrial assets can we do a good job of risk control value, realize value improvement and business income.

 

Everything is ready. What's that to me? As a senior third party organization in the industry, MIG hopes that our industry will be better and that enterprises and institutions concerned with the industry can seize the historical opportunity given to us by the frozen product industry in this adverse market.

 

"For our choice of road, if can't distinguish right or wrong, just remember: not to go back."